I have written about this before, but here it is again. This is one of the main reasons why ArcelorMittal left Zenica, and I believe the current owners are moving in a completely different direction, one that will mean increased air pollution for the citizens of Zenica. My assumption is that they will turn towards markets outside the EU, as well as engage in third-party arrangements related to ownership structures and the repurposing of facilities. It is astonishing how little this is being discussed. I have been writing about these issues for almost four to five years now, but who cares.

Briefly:

It has been one month since the CBAM mechanism came into force (1 January 2026), and there is no longer any room for postponement for Bosnia and Herzegovina. I do not know whether anyone in the Western Balkans is seriously talking about this, but the economies and states of the region will be severely shaken, especially Bosnia and Herzegovina, which produces more than 65% of its electricity from coal (the Kakanj and Tuzla thermal power plants). The iron, steel, and cement industries will be particularly affected. In practice, this means that a tonne of steel from Balkan countries will be more than 100 euros more expensive on the global market, due to the CO₂ tax that will have to be paid.

Yet our, or rather their—governments are doing nothing, as if they were living in a different universe.

A just or unjust transition: for whom, by whom, and where?

Hello… wake up.

CBAM has entered into force, there is no postponement. And you? What are you doing?

So, what exactly is CBAM?

CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) is an EU mechanism that introduces a specific CO₂ tax on imports from countries that do not have sufficiently strict environmental and emissions regulations. Its goal is to prevent European companies from relocating production to countries where manufacturing is cheaper due to weaker emission standards.

Who is affected most?

Industries with the highest CO₂ emissions, such as:

• iron and steel
• cement
• aluminium
• fertilisers
• electricity
• hydrogen

Why is this a problem for the Western Balkans?

Because:

• the region relies heavily on coal-based electricity production, especially Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Kosovo;
• the steel and cement industries are highly carbon-intensive;
• companies will no longer be able to export to the EU without paying additional tax, which can exceed 100 euros per tonne of steel.

This means that our products will become more expensive and less competitive on the EU market, which is our main export destination.

What should states be doing?

• investing in renewable energy,
• modernising factories,
• reducing emissions,
• Preparing the economy for new EU standards.

If nothing is done, many companies could collapse or lose access to their markets.